A new report is diving into the scientific literature and seeing how extreme heat could impact people in Durham Region.
It’s the first in a planned series of reports by the Durham Region Health Department. The aim is to help health officials make arrangements as they navigate the next few decades amid the ongoing climate crisis.
“Extreme heat events in Durham Region are expected to more than double in the coming decades,” said Tara Zupancic, a climate change and health specialist, in an interview with Durham Radio News. “We know as a region we need to be ready and we need to be prepared for more-intense heat waves. And we also know that it’s associated with stress, illness and pregnancy complications, as well as death. We also know that it can affect some people more than others.”
In Durham, officials say temperatures over 30 degrees Celsius are linked to an increase in emergency room visits. The writers found that years with six or more maximum-temperature days had higher rates of heat-related ER visits. “We also suspect that that’s underestimated,” said Zupancic.
People in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa may be more exposed to higher-than-projected extreme temperatures, due to the way urban centres – and their building materials – absorb heat.
However, the northern municipalities of Brock, Scugog and Uxbridge are expected to see the greatest leap in extreme heat days. For example, Scugog is expected to have nearly seven more extreme heat days per year than it already does, on average.
Zupancic noted that people experience heat differently, based on three major factors – their exposure, their sensitivity and their adaptive capacity.
“A person who works outside or lacks air conditioning – during an extreme heat event they’re going to have greater heat exposure,” she noted.
“Sensitivity is when a person is more affected by the heat compared to others, and it’s often related to age, or genetics or health status,” added Zupancic. “For example, an older adult, or a person with certain health conditions – it’s not only that they’re more affected by the heat. They actually have lessened ability to sense the heat and regulate their body temperature.”
“The last factor – and in many ways this is the most important piece – is adaptive capacity,” she continued. “This is the ability of a person, or a community in general, to protect themselves from the heat. And this is where community-level connections, relationships and supports are so critical during an extreme heat event. […] We want to help people prepare at home so they know how to recognize heat illness and they know what to do.”
The health department already keeps a special eye on seven ‘priority’ neighbourhoods where incomes tend to be lower, and health issues like cardiovascular disease appear at higher rates. In the latest report, officials express concern that people in these neighbourhoods may be particularly vulnerable to heat stress.
They also note that Oshawa and Brock have high proportions of older adults with low incomes, as well as older adults who live alone.
Officials say they will continue to gather information, work on programs and educate the public on the risks of extreme heat.
“The Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation, when they were helping us review this report, really emphasized – and I wanted to pass it on – just how important […] forested ecosystems, wetlands and grasslands are to heat resilience throughout the region,” said Zupancic. “The more greenspace we have, the more resilient we are to impacts of extreme heat. Not only do we want to protect it, we want to enhance it as much as possible and focus on areas, such as urban heat islands – where these spaces in the city can get even hotter than forecasted temperatures.”
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